25 Year Old Communicator
Abstract
Kirk and Fred discuss how, for most electronic equipment, technological obsolescence comes well before devices wear out.
Key Points
Join Kirk and Fred as they discuss how the vast majority of solid-state electronics have much longer intrinsic lifetimes than their period of technological usefulness.
Topics include:
- For the vast majority of electronics, especially consumer electronics, technological obsolescence comes long before the components fail because they have used up all their intrinsic life or “wear out.”
- Mechanical devices and batteries can and may wear out during the useful life, but some systems can last decades, such as the bathroom exhaust fan that Kirk had to replace recently.
- In 1972, David Packard, the co-founder of Hewlett-Packard, said, and it is still very true today, that “Reliability cannot be achieved by adhering to detailed specifications. Reliability cannot be achieved by formula or by analysis. Some of these may help to some extent, but there is only one road to reliability. Build it, test it, and fix the things that go wrong. Repeat the process until the desired reliability is achieved. It is a feedback process and there is no other way.”
- If you’re not stress testing to limits on the first prototypes or early production samples, you are leaving money on the table in valuable data for reliability comparisons and benchmarks for future product development, besides not finding manufacturing variation that may show reliability risks.
Enjoy an episode of Speaking of Reliability. Where you can join friends as they discuss reliability topics. Join us as we discuss topics ranging from design for reliability techniques to field data analysis approaches.
Show Notes
Here is a link to Kirk’s article “Why the Drain in the Bathtub Curve Matters ”
Please click on this link to access a relatively new analysis of traditional reliability prediction methods article from the US ARMY and CALCE titled “Reliability Prediction – Continued Reliance on a Misleading Approach”. It is in the public domain, so please feel free to distribute it. Attempting to predict reliability is a misleading and costly approach to use for developing a reliable system.
If you would like to learn more about using HALT (Highly Accelerated Limit Tests) and HASS (Highly Accelerated Stress Screens), please follow this link to the book “Next Generation HALT and HASS: Robust design of Electronics and Systems,” written by Kirk Gray and John Paschkewitz. It can also be found on Amazon Books at this link.
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